Declining civilizations will always face superior firepower from ascending civilizations because sovereignty is only temporarily uncontested. In the First Punic War, during the late 240s BC, the Carthaginians grew weary of the long war with Rome and made the decision to decommission much of their fleet and to release from their employ many of their mercenary sailors. This proved to be an extraordinarily ill-fated decision. They voluntarily ceded to Rome, their mortal enemy, naval superiority … More >

Debasing the currency always destabilizes the governing authority. During the late second century and early third centuries AD several Roman Emperors attempted to inflate the Empire’s wealth. They recalled some of the outstanding gold coinage, secretly melted it down, and reissued it with leaden cores. In each case, this tactic was nearly catastrophic. The secret became instantly common knowledge among the Roman citizenry who reacted by refusing to accept the Empire’s coinage in exchange for … More >

To hold territory, a state must be populated by those loyal to the central authority. When immigration overwhelms assimilation, the fall is predicted. In the summer of 376 AD, the Roman Emperor, Valens, agreed to allow a very large tribe of Goths to settle in Thrace. He could not have imagined that this decision would set in motion events which led to the Empire’s total defeat at Adrianople and, ultimately, the sack of Rome. It … More >

If a people cannot avoid continuous internal warfare, they will have a new order imposed from without. As the fifth century wore on, leading to the final disappearance of Roman governance in Western Europe, Roman armies continued their long suffering tradition of proclaiming their generals Emperor. While vast portions of Europe and North Africa were being overrun by Germanic invaders, Roman armies continued to fight civil wars headed by challengers to the throne, “usurpers” who … More >