Declining civilizations will always face superior firepower from ascending civilizations because sovereignty is only temporarily uncontested. In the First Punic War, during the late 240s BC, the Carthaginians grew weary of the long war with Rome and made the decision to decommission much of their fleet and to release from their employ many of their [...]
When a civilization accepts the propaganda of its enemy as truth, it has reached the far side of appeasement and capitulation is nigh. In 340 BC the Athenian ambassadors to Macedon, who had negotiated the Peace of Philocrates, returned to Athens and addressed the Assembly. They extolled the virtues and peaceful intentions of the warlord [...]
Debasing the currency always destabilizes the governing authority. During the late second century and early third centuries AD several Roman Emperors attempted to inflate the Empire’s wealth. They recalled some of the outstanding gold coinage, secretly melted it down, and reissued it with leaden cores. In each case, this tactic was nearly catastrophic. The secret [...]
With the loss of fiscal solvency comes a loss of sovereignty. After the fall of the Roman Empire of the West in AD 476, the Emperor Justinian came to power in Constantinople, the capital of the still existent Roman Empire of the East. With the help of some able generals, Justinian was able to reclaim [...]
To hold territory, a state must be populated by those loyal to the central authority. When immigration overwhelms assimilation, the fall is predicted. In the summer of 376 AD, the Roman Emperor, Valens, agreed to allow a very large tribe of Goths to settle in Thrace. He could not have imagined that this decision would [...]
When a free people, through taxation, is deprived of its ability to acquire wealth and property, collapse is presaged. Crushing taxation imposed upon the middle and lower class Romans contributed to the loss of the Roman provinces of Gaul, Iberia, and North Africa to the German invaders of the fifth century. In the second and [...]
If a people cannot avoid continuous internal warfare, they will have a new order imposed from without. As the fifth century wore on, leading to the final disappearance of Roman governance in Western Europe, Roman armies continued their long suffering tradition of proclaiming their generals Emperor. While vast portions of Europe and North Africa were [...]
Appeasement of a ruthless outside power always invites aggression. Treaties made with ruthless despots are always fruitless and dangerous. Prior to the ultimate conquest of the Greek mainland in 338, Greek allies, Thebes and Athens, negotiated the Peace of Philocrates with Philip II of Macedon. This gave him their acquiescence to the capture and enslavement [...]
In battle, free men almost always defeat slaves. (Herodotus’ Law) In 450 BC, Herodotus completed his Histories of the great war between the Greeks and Persians. (It is from his work that we know the details surrounding the battle of Thermopylae popularized in the film, 500). Herodotus, considered the first Western historian, attempted to understand [...]
No nation has ever survived once its citizenry ceased to believe its culture worth saving. (Hanson’s Law) In Professor Hanson’s essay, War Will Be War, which became the genesis for this book and was the inspiration for this immutable law, he wrote: “Themistocles’ Athens beat back hundreds of thousands of Persians; yet little more than [...]
